Review
Job growth posted a surprisingly strong increase in January, demonstrating again that the U.S. labor market is solid and poised to support broader economic growth. Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 353,000 for the month, much better than the Dow Jones estimate for 185,000. Wage growth also showed strength, as average hourly earnings increased 0.6%, double the monthly estimate.Jeff Cox, “U.S. Economy Added 353,000 Jobs in January, Much Better than Expected,”www.cnbc.com,February 2, 2024.
The U.S. began a series of airstrikes on Iranian-backed militias in Syria and Iraq on Friday, hitting seven facilities in a bid to deter further attacks against American forces in the region after U.S. troops were killed in a deadly drone strike in Jordan. The Biden administration has said the strikes could extend for days and would be coupled with economic sanctions and diplomacy that is aimed at safeguarding American forces while not pushing the U.S. toward direct confrontation with Iran. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Thursday that the U.S. can repeat its strikes as long as the threat warrants. “They have a lot of capability, I have a lot more,” Austin said.Gordon Lubold and Michael R. Gordon, “U.S. Strikes Iran-Backed Groups in Syria and Iraq,”The Wall Street Journal Online, February 2, 2024 (note this was posted as the market closed.)
So the world, and especially the U.S. versus Iran, Hamas, and Russia, move one step closer to a world war that has everything already going on except the title. This at-the-market close also represents another step in the “Flip the Script” narrative related to the Sun-Pluto ingress into Aquarius on January 20. Mercury does the same on Monday, followed by Mars and Venus on February 13-17. That is, each of these planets crosses the super-charged 0° Aquarius point that launched the “New Aira” on December 20, 2020, when Jupiter and Saturn conjoined there for the first time in about 800 years.
It’s not only that. As discussed in theForecast 2024 book(and to be reviewed with images in the February 18Forecast 2024 Webinar), Pluto becomes the first of the three outermost planets to ingress into a new sign between 2023 and 2025. That hasn’t happened in 300 years; before that, it was 300 more years. Furthermore, the last time Pluto entered Aquarius (April 1777), Neptune entered Aries (April 1861), and Uranus entered Gemini (August 1941), were within months of the three most important wars in U.S. history. Thus, there is a cosmic cycle pertaining to the U.S. that requires both awareness and wisdom in knowing how to handle it correctly lest it escalate further out of control quickly. It’s a delicate balance between deterrence and aggression, the principle of Saturn and Mars, as Mars currently travels through Capricorn, Saturn’s ruling sign. Fortunately, it is exalted there. But what happens when it ingresses into Aquarius on February 13, which is much more excitable and easily aroused to impulsive action?
I find it peculiar that the announcement came less than four minutesbeforethe stock market closed. Prior to that, U.S. stocks were in the process of making a secondary top to their all-time highs that had just been achieved at 3:30 PM, 30 minutes before the close. During that interval of time, the S&P futures fell about 25 points. Although the S&P and DJIA made new all-time highs on Friday, the NASDAQ futures fell short by just 18 points from their high of January 24 at 17,793. This constitutes a new case of intermarket bearish divergence in the U.S.
New all-time or multi-year highs on Friday were also established in Germany (DAX), Netherlands (AEX), and India (NIFTY). The Australian ASX index fell slightly short of its all-time high of January 2022, while Zurich’s SMI index popped to its highest price since June 2023. China’s Shanghai Composite was less fortunate as China’s economic struggles continue. The SSE fell to 2866 on Friday, its lowest level since April 2022, when it bottomed at 2863. Maybe this is a double bottom. If not, it will fall to its lowest since March 2020.
As would be expected, the late-day announcement of the military activity stopped the bleeding in Gold, Silver, and Crude Oil, as each had taken sharp hits following the bullish jobs report. That is, each of these commodities was strong following Jerome Powell’s speech on Thursday, suggesting that it may be getting close to easing rates again – but not just yet. Crude Oil was especially strong as it rallied to 79.29 last week, its highest mark since November 30 at 79.60. But by Friday, it had fallen nearly 10% to a low of 71.79, which is close to a Fibonacci 61.8% correction of its prior rally from the low of December 12. Silver also gave back about 61.8% of its recent rally into Friday’s low.
The most stable market last week was – surprise – Bitcoin, which traded in a tight range between 42,600 and 44,900.
Short-term geocosmics
The violent swings in US equity pricing yesterday tell investors all they need to know about Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s communication skills. In the battle between extremists predicting a hard landing and the realists who see a soft economic landing, the Fed seems to tilt towards a soft landing… The Bank of England has two advantages relative to the Fed. It is headed by a real life economist, and communications are always more convincing when delivered with a British accent.Dr. Paul Donovan, “A Victory for the Realists,” UBS Morning Call,www.ubs.com,February 1, 2024.
“Who owns you?” Not who do you work for, what do you believe, but who bought your loyalty? It is the Washington problem in three words. The social-media companies have bought up Washington. They give money to politicians and political action committees, to think tanks and media shops; they hire the most influential and respected. They give the children of politicians jobs. Mr. Kennedy mordantly joked about this at the hearings: “We know we’re in a recession when Google has to lay off 25 members of Congress.”Peggy Noonan, “Tech CEOs Face another Ritual Denunciation,”Wall Street Journal, “February 3, 2024.
Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow on Groundhog Day 2024, meaning an early spring is on the way.Joe Brandt, Jim Donovan, Kate Bilo,CBS News, February 2, 2024.
Last week, it was the stand-off between Texas and the United States government over the lack of border controls. This week, it is between the U.S. government and Iran/Syria over attacks on U.S. forces in that region. Next week it will be… well, we don’t know. It is all so Uranian, and Uranus and the sign it rules (Aquarius) being highlighted portends big surprises, big market moves, and sudden reversals. The “surprise” nature of both the planet and the sign is why this column recently mentioned that the season of Aquarius (January 20-February 18) is usually a very difficult climate for traders.
It doesn’t appear ready to let up. This week will find Venus trine Uranus (February 7), the Sun square Uranus (February 8), plus Mercury ingressing into Aquarius (February 5). This is followed by both Mars and Venus entering Aquarius, conjunct Pluto at 0° Aquarius, February 13-17. This year’s Aquarius season is especially hard hit with disruptive cosmic positions. And, of course, all of this is on a path to the 14-year Jupiter/Uranus synodic (conjunction) cycle that takes place on April 20, just as the Bitcoin halving event is to occur.
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Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycles’ analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand the psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day. No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
